In that race, Mariannette Miller-Meeks (R) defeated Rita Hart (D) by a margin of 6 votes out of nearly 400,000 cast, the narrowest margin of victory in any U.S. House election since 1984. -- We are highlighting a number of deep sleeper potential upsets in todays KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- Were now less than 4 weeks from 2022s Election Day. By Larry J. Sabato, Kyle Kondik, and J. These boundaries will be in effect through 2022. Use this map to create and share your own 2022 House Election forecast. You can also view these ratings as a table. Current House. November 6:CA-21, IL-08, WA-06 move from Safe to Likely D; CO-03 Safe to Likely R; CT-05 Leans D to Leans R; GA-02, NJ-03 Likely to Leans D; WA-03 Safe to Likely D. All toss-ups picked - Toss-up to Leans D: CA-13, ME-02, MI-08, MN-02, NY-17, PA-08, TX-28. Note: Ballotpedia does not consider these seats to be open when calculating congressional competitiveness data. Miles Coleman Posted November 7, 2022. There were 30 U.S. House Democratic battleground primaries in 2022. As a result of the elections, Republicans gained a 222-213 majority. In addition, as mentioned earlier, the margin of error for the Senate model is relatively large, leaving room for a range of possible outcomes from a GOP gain of two-to-three seats to a Democratic gain of four-to-five seats. Joe Kent's margin of victory over Herrera Beutler in the primary. House.[5]. Philippe J. Fournier is a political columnist for . Click here for more information about apportionment after the 2020 census. This web site is a creation of Philippe J. Fournier, physics and astrophysics professor at Cgep de Saint-Laurent in Montreal. The Senate model is not quite as accurate, explaining about 60% of the variance in seat swing. A federal district court judge affirmed the decision of a state-level judge to postpone the primaries for congressional and state senate offices to August 23, 2022 (the primary was originally scheduled for June 28, 2022). Updated: 5:29 PM CST March 1, 2022. There are 26 seats rated as Toss Up races where neither party has a significant advantage. The final 2022 House ratings from Cook Political Report. If one assumes that both parties hold each of their two currently vacant seats, we know that Democrats will be defending 222 of 435 House seats and 14 of 34 Senate seats next year, then the only predictor whose value is unknown is the generic ballot. We use numbers to expressuncertainty. The court's order did not affect the July 22, 2022, deadline for candidates qualifying by paying the filing fee. Full election results. The incumbent party Coalition Avenir Quebec led by Franois Legault registered a massive win in the last election. See the rest of our predictions. In the sections below, you will find: Click here for our Election Day coverage of the November 8, 2022, U.S. House election results. We'll always be transparent about why we're making a certain rating. Forecasts based on this range of generic ballot results are displayed in Table 3. His latest book,The Great Alignment: Race, Party Transformation, and the Rise of Donald Trump, was released in 2018 by Yale University Press. These results indicate that one should interpret the models predictions for Senate seat swing cautiously as relatively large errors are not uncommon. Pennsylvania's new congressional map is generally good news for Democrats except for Rep. Susan Wild, whose Lehigh Valley seat got tougher for her. Rep. Jackie Walorski (R) died in a car accident on August 3, 2022. Democratic Rep. Cindy Axne survived 2020, despite Donald Trump carrying her Des Moines-based district. The charts below show primary competitiveness statistics for the U.S. House from 2014 to 2022. [1] This page provides an overview of the 2022 U.S. House election. The Interactive and 2023 views use redistricted lines, placing incumbents where applicable. A model using the generic ballot and seat exposure shows that a single digit lead on the generic ballot would give Democrats a good chance to keep control of the Senate. The closest U.S. House race in 2022 was in Colorado's 3rd Congressional District, where Lauren Boebert (R) defeated Adam Frisch (D) by a margin of 0.17%, or 546 votes out of more than 300,000 cast. Click here for our coverage of special elections to the 117th Congress. In the 2014 primary for Virginia's 7th Congressional District, House Majority Leader Eric Cantor (R), ranked behind only then-Speaker John Boehner (R) in Republican House leadership, was defeated by economics professor Dave Brat (R). Even if Republicans fail to win any of the 26 Toss Up races just 1 of the 26 would give them the majority they are currently projected to gain 4 seats. The current breakdown of the House (allocating vacant seats to the party that last won them) is 222 Democrats and 213 Republicans. CORPUS CHRISTI, Texas Voters will decide Tuesday who they want to represent their party for Texas 27th Congressional District. According to Politico, the PVI is designed to "provide a quick overall assessment of generic partisan strength in a congressional district. 51 +1. Use this map to create and share your own 2022 House Election forecast. The average MOV of in the U.S. House was 28.9 percentage points, the second smallest margin since 2012, and up slightly from 28.8 percentage points in 2020. A smaller Democratic lead in the generic ballot, or a Republican lead, would predict a Republican edge in the House, and possibly also in the Senate. Senate Projection. What Election Day looks like based on polls alone, What Election Day looks like based on polls, fundraising, past voting patterns and more, What Election Day looks like when we add experts ratings to the Classic forecast. The Rio Grande Valley swung sharply to the right in the last election. To learn more about congressional non-voting members in the U.S. House of Representatives, click here. Five of the chamber's six non-voting members were up for election as well. Brian Kemp's strength at the top of the ticket. Sablan ran as an independent from 2008 to 2020. A lead of that magnitude would predict a Republican gain of one seat in the House and a Democratic gain of two seats in the Senate giving Democrats a 221-214 seat majority in the House and a 52-48 seat majority in the Senate. Currently, they have 76 seats in the National Assembly. -- The goal is to use micro level (congressional district and state) competitiveness assessments in combination with their electoral history to statistically generate an accurate prediction of the KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- A congressional forecasting model using political and economic fundamentals suggests that Republicans are favored to flip both the House and the Senate. Dear Readers: Listeners to our Politics is Everything podcast are already familiar with Carah Ong Whaley, who joined the Center for Politics several months ago. To ensure editorial control and independence, we pay for the polls ourselves and generate revenue through the sale of subscriptions, sponsorships, and advertising. [53][54], The following table displays candidates who qualified as Young Guns for the 2022 election cycle. Terms of service | Privacy Policy | Do not sell my info | Notice to California Residents, Design & development: Andrew Briz, Beatrice Jin, Arjun Kakkar, Andrew McGill, Allan James Vestal, Audience & strategy: Caroline Amenabar, Annie Bryan, Kam Burns, Isabel Dobrin, Annie Yu, Elana Zak. Republicans formally captured 218 House seats, a delayed yet consequential finish to the 2022 midterm elections. Operations: Meghann Olshefski Mandy Morris Kelly Rindfleisch Pollsters that did not release any horse-race polls within three weeks of an election since 1998 do not have a grade and are treated as a C+ by the grade filter. Click here to contact us for media inquiries, and please donate here to support our continued expansion. !function(){"use strict";window.addEventListener("message",(function(e){if(void 0!==e.data["datawrapper-height"]){var t=document.querySelectorAll("iframe");for(var a in e.data["datawrapper-height"])for(var r=0;r. [35][36] Also included is each district's 2022 partisan lean as of May 2022 from The Cook Political Report and FiveThirtyEight. Four of the delegates filed to run for re-election. !function(){"use strict";window.addEventListener("message",(function(a){if(void 0!==a.data["datawrapper-height"])for(var e in a.data["datawrapper-height"]){var t=document.getElementById("datawrapper-chart-"+e)||document.querySelector("iframe[src*='"+e+"']");if(t)(t.style.height=a.data["datawrapper-height"][e]+"px")}}))}(); Tech: Matt Latourelle Nathan Bingham Ryan Burch Kirsten Corrao Beth Dellea Travis Eden Tate Kamish Margaret Kearney Eric Lotto Joseph Sanchez. Democratic Rep. Elissa Slotkin's battleground seat got slightly easier in redistricting, but the GOP thinks it can oust her with a national tailwind. Search our Site: . In 2018, Democrats won 15 of POLITICOs 22 Toss Up contests in their 40-seat wave election. 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